Friday, October 26, 2012

Hugh Hendry and David Einhorn

The video below is a recent one of Hugh Hendry followed by David Einhorn at the Buttonwood gathering in New York City.  The topics discussed are the topics that everyone is discussing ad nauseum, eg., Europe's 'Theatre of the Absurd', questions about China's flailing role as the global engine of growth, The US recession and of course the Federal Reserve.  If all this has been discussed ad nauseam, then why post a lengthy video of it here?

Two reasons:
1.  Hugh Hendry's macro views are well thought out, challenge conventional wisdom, and take into 2nd, 3rd, and 4th level affects.  I think he is on par with Ray Dalio as far as one of the few macro opinions worth considering.  As Howard Marks has correctly stated, it is impossible to predict these global outcomes.  In light of that, it is important to be prepared, and part of doing that is to listen to someone like Hendry as he presents multiple plausible outcomes and the collateral damage associated.

2.  Around the 55 minute mark David Einhorn takes the stage (after Hendry, I skipped straight to the Einhorn section, so I can't vouch for what's in between).  Einhorn doesn't discuss specific securities, but what he does do is give a thorough rebuttal as to why the Fed's ZIRP is not working and will continue to not work.  He feels that by punishing savers, you also punish consumption, which punishes sales, which punishes business growth.  He explains in much more detail.

FYI: Unfortunately, the video host (not Me!) is asking for your email to watch the video.  It didn't do that last night when I watched it on my phone... 

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